The monsoons are knocking at Kerala's doors. But the Arabian Sea branch of the monsoon is likely to remain weak in the coming days.
The IMD considers a certain amount of rainfall to declare the onset of monsoon. That is why it says it will come to Kerala around May 30. Because around that time considerable rainfall is forecasted for the state.
If we do not take the rains into account, monsoons have already reached the state. The monsoons winds reaching up to 14 kilometers in the atmosphere are already in place. They have already reached Kerala, Tamil Nadu, southern Andhra and Karnataka.
But the Arabian Sea monsoons will remain weak in the coming 10 days. It is not likely to move north in the coming days. In contrast the Bay of Bengal monsoon stream is vigorous and will move north into West Bengal and Bihar around June 4, 2015.
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| SCENARIO ON JUNE 4, 2015. THE MAP SHOWS A VIGOROUS BAY OF BENGAL MONSOON STREAM. THE ACTIVITY OVER ARABIAN SEA IS FEEBLE. |
The American NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) forecasts poor monsoon rains in June for India. July and August are likely to be above average rain fall months.
Given below are rainfall forecast maps for June-September. Please note the maps show the anomaly (below average, above average) in inches for each month.
One fact stands out very clearly. Average or below average rainfall is expected in north Indian states (Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana) and Rajasthan this monsoon.
The CFS forecasts are seasonal long range forecasts. They give a good indication of the trends. We will keep you informed of any changes in the CFS forecast for monsoon 2015.
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| THE FORECAST FOR JUNE 2015 VERY POOR RAINS ON THE ARABIAN SEA COASTAL AREAS AND MANY OTHER STATES. ABOVE AVERAGE RAINS ARE LIKELY ONLY IN NORTH EASTERN INDIA, PARTS OF BANGLADESH, TAMIL NADU AND PARTS OF KERALA AND SOUTHERN ANDHRA. |
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| JULY WILL BE BETTER WITH ABOVE AVERAGE RAINS IN GUJARAT, MADHYA PRADESH, MAHARASHRA, ANDHRA, ODISHA, WEST BENGAL, BANGLADESH AND PARTS OF BIHAR. |
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| AUGUST WILL BRING GOOD RAINS TO SAURASHTRA, MAHARASHTRA, ODISHA, ANDHRA, JHARKHAND, WEST BENGAL. |
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| SEPTEMBER WILL SEE ABOVE AVERAGE RAINS ONLY IN PARTS ODISHA, MADHYA PRADESH AND NORTH EAST INDIAN STATES |
The JMA in its three month forecast issued in May predicts a very gloomy picture for Indian monsoons in 2015. It says in June-July-August rainfall is going to below normal in almost all of India, except for the states of Odisha, West Bengal and northern Andhra where there will be slightly above average rainfall. SEE FORECAST MAP BELOW
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| THREE MONTH RAINFALL FORECAST (JUNE-JULY-AUGUST) MONSOON 2015. JMA PREDICTS BELOW AVERAGE RAINS IN ALMOST ALL OF INDIA |
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